PORTLAND, Ore. - Reps from Blue Bird, IC Bus and Thomas Built Buses addressed how the economy is affecting school bus manufacturing during day two of the National Association of State Directors of Pupil Transportation Services annual meeting.

Responses were mixed when asked when they thought school bus sales would rebound from a precipitous slide over the last several years. David Harden, assistant VP of North American Sales at IC Bus, said Navistar has identified an uptick in sales of its International trucks, a segment that historically has trended in front of the school bus side of the business. He told the group gathered at the Doubletree Hotel Lloyd Center downtown that IC Bus forecasts a rebound in school bus sales by 2012 as more budget money begins to free up on the local school district level.

But Roger Howsmon, a senior executive consultant with Blue Bird, disagree with that assessment, one reason for the company's manufacturing consolidation to its Fort Valley, Ga., plant from the company's facility in Lafayette, Ga., earlier this year. He pointed to a survey results released by the American Association of School Administrators this past spring that school budgets will continue to decline during the current 2010-2011 school year.

Howsman added that Blue Bird was forecasting that new manufacturing job hires were expected to remain stagnant until at least after the upcoming mid-term elections as the company waits to see not necessarily what the political picture will look like but how tax and credit issues will affect businesses.

Then there are costs of precious metals like steel and copper that continue to rise. So the result is a perfect storm of both school districts and OEMs being asked to do more with less.

"Our jobs as manufacturers is to try and control those costs, which means to be more efficient," he added.

Ken Hedgecock, vice president of sales, marketing and service at Thomas Built Buses, expressed concern about a possible "resetting of the school bus paradigm." The market saw steady growth in production numbers over the past several decades, all of that culminating in annual sales in the 40,000 unit ball park. But that was before the Great Recession.

New buses are also lasting longer, and all three manufacturers agreed that they have seen a marked increase in their parts business, which can also be tied to customers being forced to hold on to buses longer because of shrinking budgets.