By Bill Paul
STN Editor & Publisher

Records are made to be broken, and once again the number of school buses manufactured during the past twelve months has gone up. For the second consecutive year school bus manufacturers reported a 4% growth in all four types of school buses, according to the 8th annual School Transportation News School Bus Manufacturing Survey.

Conducted annually for the 12-month period that approximates the just-concluded school year, the survey found that a record 47,670 school buses were manufactured between Sept. 1, 1999 through Aug. 31, 2000. That's nearly 20,000 more school buses than the 28,564 units manufactured in 1992! Clearly, the pupil transportation industry has benefited from the remarkable, sustained period of growth over the past eight years.

The greatest growth in the past 12-months came in the conventional-style school bus category. Altogether, five companies that manufacture Type C school buses produced 25,898 units. That compares to 24,610 Type C buses built a year ago, a growth of 1,288 and represents a 5.2% growth in this category.

Type C Bus Production

Type C growth was up 5.2% over one year ago.

The second greatest growth came in the Type D, or transit-style, category. The five companies that manufacture this category of bus produced 11,341 units. That compares to 10,357 Type D buses built a year ago, a growth of 984, and represents a 9.5% growth in this category. While 9.5% may seem quite a significant percent rise, it represents only about 2% increase of the combined Type C and Type D big bus production of 37,239 units.

Type D Bus Production

Type D growth spurted 9.4% over one year ago.

As is usually the case, there are lots of factors that produce increased volume and a simple answer is not clear. One manufacturer attributed the increase in the Type C and Type D categories to "confidence in pupil transportation overall, that it is safe and does an excellent job." He said, "Due to an excellent record in pupil transportation, and as a result of the confidence of the general public in pupil transportation, there appears to be an increased demand for school buses to transport children to and from school. It is a reflection of a job well done."

A more fundamental reason another manufacturer noted is population growth. The National Center for Education Statistics, a unit of the U.S. Department of Education, projects continued growth of the K-12 population through the year 2010. Most of the growth will be concentrated in the West and Southwest. The 12 western states are projected to see an 11.1% growth in the K9-12 population, with only Montana suffering a small decline. Meanwhile, 10 western states will see an increase averaging 6.3% in the K-8 population, with only Nevada and Oregon experiencing minor declines.

Another consideration is the robust strength of the American economy. But while isolated pockets of growth can be identified, the correlation between economy and school-age population is not a straight-line correlation.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the year - and confusion - occurred in the Type A-1 and A-2 markets. Altogether, the two Type A segments accounted for 10,181 buses. Readers should note that for the purposes of this survey, the A-1 and A-2 designations are the ones adopted by the 12th National School Transportation Conference in 1995. Conferees to the 13th National School Transportation Conference in May 2000 reversed the GVWR weight ratings of these buses; under the 12th NCST definitions the Type A-1 was the larger, heavier vehicle and the Type A-2 the smaller, lighter vehicle. Under the new designations adopted at the 13th NCST, the Type A-1 will cover smaller vehicles under 10,000 lbs. GVWR while the A-2 will cover larger vehicles of 10,001 lbs. GVWR or greater. Some chassis builders are eyeing these new designations as a way for Type A chassis to encroach on the Type C market, but that possibility awaits the coming 12 months.

Type A Bus Production

Type a bus production up 8.1% over year ago.

With that caveat in mind, six companies reported manufacturing 2,821 Type A-1 buses, down 23% or 848 units from a year ago. Meanwhile, eight companies reported building 7,360 Type A-2 buses, up 8.1% or 554 units from a year ago. Few orders received after the conference concluded last May were completed in time to be included in these survey data.

"There was quite a bit of confusion" about the reversal of the designation of A-1 and A-2 school buses, noted three executives whose companies manufacture the small buses. "That definitely messed with some people's minds," said one executive. He added however he has already seen a modicum of movement towards the A-2 category, as "the new A-2 is a larger bus. The larger a small bus becomes, the smaller the per student cost becomes. Buyers understand that," he said.

Almost to a person, the executives interviewed for this article were "surprised" or "shocked" about the small bus production data. Most expected the final number to be even higher; one even expected more than 12,000 units.

Another expectation that did not materialize is the daycare/church/non-profit market. Said one executive, "The only (daycare providers) that can afford to buy buses are the larger chain corporations. The smaller mom and pop operations don't have the money to buy." He attributed that to a lack of confidence due to a playground equipment fiasco a few years ago. The feds began to require certain playground equipment and so these companies bought the equipment, he explained. "Then the feds rescinded the law and made their requirement a recommendation. They put a large number of those companies out of business."

Source: Reprinted from School Transportation News, October 2000. All rights reserved.