By Bill Paul
STN Editor & Publisher

During the 2001-02 school year, school bus builders in the United States and Canada manufactured somewhere between 37,000 and 42,700 yellow school buses!

These data - though inconclusive - were developed by the annual STN Bus & Chassis Manufacturing Survey. The survey gathered data for the period of Sept. 1, 2001 through Aug. 31, 2002, a 12-month period that approximates the just concluded 2001-2002 school year. The editors of School Transportation News surveyed 10 companies that manufacture complete school buses and five companies that manufacture school bus chassis, including three full-line builders that manufacture their own Type D transit-style chassis.

During the period surveyed these companies reported to School Transportation News that a total of 8,980 Type A-1 and Type A-2 small school buses were manufactured. They reported that 24,500 Type C conventional school buses and 8,680 Type D transit-style buses were manufactured. Altogether, according to survey results, 42,700 school buses were manufactured.

In addition, 450 allowable alternate vehicles and van conversions were produced. While AAVs are not officially designated as school buses they are generally considered throughout the industry as Type A vehicle. Although the numbers are very small, this segment experienced great growth, shooting up nearly 450 percent (from 74 units in 2000-01 to 420 in 2001-02.)

STN survey data includes six styles of vehicles used in school bus application: allowable alternate vehicles, van conversions, Type A-1 and A-2 small school buses, Type B school buses, Type C conventional style school buses, and Type D transit-style school buses. In an effort to eliminate counting buses manufactured for non-school or commercial application, the STN survey only gathers data for buses that have been manufactured to meet all required school bus specific federal motor vehicle safety standards.

Data vs. Estimates
If the aggregate figure of 42,700 buses accurately represents the total market for school buses last school year, the industry only declined six percent from the same reporting period a year ago. Such a modest decline doesn't make a lot of sense given America's financial difficulties, and the fact that many school districts and more than 40 states are experiencing red ink.

Not surprisingly, the conclusion that 33,000 large, conventional and transit-style school buses were produced was greeted with skepticism by the bus builders. Although the data reported here was supplied by the companies themselves (see charts 1 and 2 for a complete list of participating companies), the dilemma this year is that several leading school bus OEM and supplier executives insisted their internal estimates (the operant word here is "estimates") of the gross number of large buses manufactured during the reporting period was significantly lower, more likely in the 27,000 to 28,000 range.

Meanwhile, the conclusion that nearly 9,000 Type A buses were manufactured (the figure grows to about 9,500 if AAVs are included) was hailed as "probably accurate" by manufactures and distributors alike. The survey also found the three companies that build Type A chassis together produced 11,540 cutaway chassis unit. The extra 2,000 cutaway chassis can be accounted for by buses built for commercial application that were built on chassis certified for school bus application.

In the school bus business most experts consider bus body production as the barometer by which to measure the economic health of the school bus manufacturing segment. A difficulty in this business is that reliable, independent third party verification of bus school production is not available. The reason traces back to the early days of school bus manufacturing. Starting in the late 1920s and continuing until the middle of the last decade, many of the leading companies in the business were closely held family-owned enterprises. In the ultra competitive school bus manufacturing environment bottom line data such as profitability, numbers of buses produced, man-hours needed to manufacture a bus, etc., were the family jewels, tightly guarded and seldom disclosed.

For the last two decades as journalists gathered school bus building sales data for the two industry magazine, School Transportation News and School Bus Fleet, manufacturers always insisted on anonymity. Companies shared their production data with the magazines on the express promise that their market share never be disclosed in print, and that data be aggregated by bus type.

Third Party Verification
In an effort to address the need for third party verification, the STN survey asks bus and chassis manufacturers to supply the number and types of transmissions they install in the buses they build. For the last three years the vast majority of transmissions in school buses - in the 90 to 95 percent range - have come from Allison Transmission. In this year's survey, four bus body builders reported installing 25,260 transmissions in Type C buses while three companies reported installing 8,680 transmissions in Type D buses. Grand total: 33,940! This figure tracks closely with STN's conclusion that more than 33,000 large Type C and Type D buses were produced. Readers should note the transmission data was neither supplied by nor confirmed by Allison.

STN also contacted several vendors that supply school bus OEMs with stock items such as mirrors, seats, crossing control equipment, etc. Vendor estimates are typically based on shipments of their company products to bus OEMs. But for a variety of reasons these data proved inconclusive too. One vendor for instance estimated that bus OEMs produced more than 42,000 school buses while others insisted their data - and the talk on the street - showed production in the range of 37,000 to 38,000 buses. No wonder one manufacturer described annual school bus production data as "directional, at best."

Regardless of what the actual number of school buses manufactured during the period surveyed proves ultimately to be, now, at the dawn of the 21st century, with the three largest bus builders (Blue Bird, IC Corp., and Thomas Built Buses) all owned by publicly held companies, the need for transparent, reliable production data gains greater urgency as shareholder confidence by individual investors, not just institutional investors, begins to underlie continued investment in the industry. School bus OEM managers and executives must not only build better buses but build shareholder value as well. Indeed, one could argue that production data based on a reliable reporting methodology that includes third party verification is now a component of school bus safety.

Source: Reprinted from School Transportation News 2003 Buyer's Guide, December 2002. All rights reserved.